2019-07-08 Episode 04 The Accounting of War
Sun Tzu examined the social and economic cost of war, and the law of supply and demand. Wars are costly, and costlier still if they are prolonged, so it is best to move fast and aim for a quick victory.
Chapter 2 of The Art of War continues the discussion about the preparations for war. Here Sunzi's main point is that wars are costly and costlier still if they are prolonged. So it's best to move fast and aim for a quick victory. The supplementary point is the cost of war can be mitigated somewhat by exploiting the enemy's resources. Accounting and logistics are not the most exciting things to talk about. Nevertheless, they are a vital part of war. A Western proverb dating back to as early as the 13th century underlines the rule of supplies. For want of a nail the shoe was lost. For want of a shoe the horse was lost. For want of a horse the rider was lost. For want of a rider the message was lost. For want of a message the battle was lost. For want of a battle the kingdom was lost. And all for the want of a horse shoe nail. The Anglo-American supply headquarters in London during the Second World War had it framed and hung on a wall to remind everyone of the stakes involved in their job. Other variations of this nursery rhyme have been found in literature, movies and televisions in France, Germany and the United States. Mostly to caution against the great mischief that may arise from a little neglect. Sun Tzu also took a look into the business of logistics. He said, in a war involving thousands of chariots and tens of thousands of footmen, supplies are transported across hundreds of miles at a great cost. The expense of maintaining weapons and chariots and the budget for servicing state guests and diplomatic envoys could amount to a thousand gold coins every day. A country must be prepared to foot this bill before it raises an army. Underlying Swinzer's writing is the message that diplomacy is an integral part of war. If the tremendous cost of war can be avoided or reduced by sending an eloquent diplomat to the enemy's court to argue a strong case, then that diplomat is just as powerful as an army of men. Now back to logistics. Swinzer arrived at a different conclusion than the quartermasters of the Allied forces. When war was unavoidable, he preferred to finish it sooner rather than later. A protracted war dampens the soldiers' morale, depletes national resources and invites attack from other states. So it's better to move fast and not rely on spectacular tactics rather than taking the time to deploy a sophisticated operation. Swinzer also examined the social and economic cost of war and the law of supply and demand. He said, in the proximity of an army, the demand for food increases and commodity prices go up. As a result, the common folk are impoverished in times of war. Remember our earlier reflection on social governance that comes from the Tao all the way? The first question that a commander should ask himself in the assessment. If the people are not happy about their king's decisions, they won't be willing to die for him in battle. Fighting a protracted war that deprives people of their livelihood is a surefire way to make them turn their backs on their monarch. In fact, generations of Chinese historians would tell you that quite a few dynasties fell precisely because their emperors send their troops on extended crusades. Therefore, generations of wise administrators of China have tried to avoid wars whenever they could. The ancient strategy of aiming for quick victories burst onto the scene in the early stages of World War II, when German forces adopted what Time Magazine later referred to as the Bliss Creek or Lightning War, which called for a dense concentration of armoured and mortarised infantry to penetrate and splinter the enemy's defences. That was how the Germans managed to overrun Poland, Belgium, the Netherlands and France in just two years. But Bliss Creek is not without its setbacks. It's vulnerable against an enemy that's strong enough to survive the initial surprise attack. An enemy so expansive that he can't afford to trade territory for time to regroup. As was the case with Germany's invasion of Russia. In the Battle of Moscow in 1941 and the Battle of Stalingrad the following year, the Red Army successfully regrouped despite the tremendous loss of lives and territory. The Lightning War turned into a lengthy bloodbath. At this point, the problem of logistics caught up with the Germans. Without fuel and ammunition, there are tanks and bombers set idle, waiting for supplies to arrive. And guess what? Defending the long supply lines also ate up fuel and ammunition. It is worth noting that the Germans also failed to examine the heaven and earth and their own strengths and weaknesses before they made their move on Russia. This was perhaps their first major blunder. The harsh climate and vast expanse of Russia has spelled the end for many of the country's invaders. And an enemy short on fuel and was constantly having his oil refineries bombarded probably didn't stand a chance. Sunze didn't have to worry about fuel and ammunition, which was why his accounting of war focused mainly on the food supply. Still, that didn't make the logistics planning easy. By his calculation, for every unit of food that arrived at the front line, it took 20 units of food to get it there, which was eaten by soldiers, officers and a beast of burden along the way. To offset this cost, he advised looting and feeding on the enemy's grain because 1000 litres of grain from the enemy is worth 20,000 litres transported from home. On some occasions, feeding on the enemy crops might be enough to save the day, but just as you can't win a war only by cheating, a general can't rely solely on stolen food to feed his army. Because the enemy can always practice a scorched earth policy and destroy anything of value that could be left behind for their opponent. And that's pretty much it for the second chapter of Sunze's strategy book focused on the accounting of war. The main thrust of his idea was to fight for a quick victory and avoid protracted wars to reduce the tremendous cost that war brings. And while you are crossing enemy territory, take the opportunity to steal the resources they've left behind, but don't rely too heavily on them. In the next episode, we'll look at Sunze's main types of battle strategy.